Thanks to our Fanspeak Writers — John Manuel, Alan Zlotorzynski, Max Emfinger & Matt Pearce for joining the NFL Draft Debate. Now its your turn…comment below with your answers!
1. What will be the biggest Round 1 surprise on Thursday?
JOHN:
I still have a feeling Mante Teo could slip out of the first round. Teams will hesitate to take him when on the clock. Then I thought maybe it would be Ryan Nassib going to the Bills at 8 but that looks no longer like a surprise. Now I hear that Tavon Austin could go as high as #4 to Philly? Maybe he doesn't go that high but I think he goes top ten in the end.
ALAN:
The biggest first round surprise in my opinion will be the actual number of quarterbacks taken in round one compared to what many are predicting. I believe that despite having Kevin Kolb to hold them over a year, a team like Buffalo will select either Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib in the first round. That does not mean that they will do it at No.8 (If they were smart they would not) but I have a feeling they will.
MAX:
WR Robert Woods, QB Matt Scott, DE Dion Jordan, LB Barkevious Mingo, LB Jarvis Jones, WR Justin Hunter, RB Eddie Lacy, Tyrann Mathieu, TE Luke Wilson, CB Desmond Trufant, CB Xavier Rhodes, SS Eric Reid, SS Shamarko Thomas, DE Ziggy Ansah, DT Shelton Richardson
MATT:
The biggest surprise will be whoever takes Geno Smith and where they. As of right now, it really is a mystery where he will go. I have seen mocks with him going number two overall and I have seen mocks with him going in the second round. It seems that his stock is all over the place.
2. How many trades do you think there will be in Round 1 this year since there's not as much elite talent as in year's past?
JOHN:
Very little I bet. A lot of teams will want to move down but it doesn't look like many want to go up. I bring up Austin again and that someone could move up for him. If there are trades I could see it late first round when the bad teams with high second round picks want to get in the last few picks to make sure they get a quarterback like Barkley, Manuel, or Nassib if the Bills thing is all a smoke screen.
ALAN:
While there may not be as much talent in terms of flash and glamour, I classify this draft as one where teams that are already good, can get better. In other words, with no Andrew Luck or RG3, the teams drafting at the top may not be able to turn their seasons around immediately as those teams did last year. With that said, I believe the depth of this class may prohibit teams from wanting to move up since it is entirely possible that there is no talent difference between the sixth or seventh pick than pick 28 or 29. The 19 overall trades executed in the first round (three of which happened in 2011, involving Atlanta, New Orleans and Oakland) of last year's draft, were the most in the NFL since the 1970 merger. It marked the first time since 2002 that there were double-digit trades in round one. I feel last year was the exception and I predict no more than seven first round deals.
MATT:
Even though there aren't as many elite talents in this draft, there still will be quite a bit of trading in the first round. I don't think there will be as many trades as last year though. A lot of teams high in the draft want to trade down but with all of that, it could be tough to find a trading partner. If teams really want to move down, they might take less in a deal then they normally would due to the lack or elite talent but with very good depth in this draft. I'm going to say there will be twelve trades. A majority of this will be movement in the top ten, with teams making sure they get their guy and teams trading back into the first round to pick up a player.
3. How many and which quarterbacks will be selected on Thursday night (Round 1)?
JOHN:
I am gonna say three in the end. Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley. I think Smith goes top ten now even though in the past I thought a team near the top wouldn't pass him up at 2 or 3. Nassib looks pretty good to go to the Bills are 8 or later in the first round if they trade back or trade up from the second round. And I still think someone will snag Matt Barkley in the first probably in the mid-twenties. Maybe the Jets even look at him with the second 1st or trade back on that pick.
ALAN:
A QB has been chosen No.1 overall in 10 of the last 12 drafts. That will not happen his year but the actual number of “Not quite ready” signal callers that could hear their name called on Friday night may end up surprising you. Of the 23 players invited to attend the NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall, only two come from the quarterback position, Geno Smith (WVU) and EJ Manuel (FSU). While there may not be a No.1 overall selection at the position in this year’s draft, I still would not be surprised to see four QB’s to move in round one. Any QB other than Geno Smith would be over drafted. However, it could be argued that eight of the teams selecting in the top 10 need a signal caller. This is where it gets interesting with the trades. Teams have an idea who they want and I do not think they will wait to grab them once a semi run starts on the position. Look for Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley and EJ Manuel to all go in Round 1.
MAX:
Geno Smith, Matt Barkley
MATT:
If I was a GM, I would only consider taking West Virginia's Geno Smith in the first round, but I'm not a GM. I will say that three quarterbacks go in the first round. The first two will be Smith and the other will be Syracuse's Ryan Nassib. I think these two will go early (top sixteen) to say maybe the Bills and Jets. The third quarterback would be E.J. Manuel, from Florida State. He is a candidate for teams to trade back into the first round and select. He would be a perfect fit for Chip Kelly's offense in Philadelphia. While this quarterback class isn't very good, this is a quarterback league now and teams will reach for them.
4. Whose stock will rise the most on draft day? And fall the most draft day?
JOHN:
Tavon Austin I think. He has come up a lot in the talk. But I think he started as a fringe first rounder and now is being talked about in the top five. If he does go that high we will probably hear a lot of Ted Ginn or Darius Heyward-Bey references. Outside shot that teams get excited about Barkley also and he rises just like Jake Locker or Christian Ponder but then again maybe thats not a good reason for teams. I think Tyrann Matheiu's name doesn't get called for awhile after some think he could have been rising to the second round. His "honesty" tour will scare a lot of teams off although it just takes one to overlook his past.
ALAN:
Its funny, while this isn’t the year of the quarterback, I predict the position will ultimately steal the headlines of this draft. My draft day riser will be EJ Manuel on offense and linebacker Arthur Brown on defense. According to Jeff Reynolds of The Sports Xchange “Brown can play inside or outside linebacker and his experience stopping the run and in coverage showed scouts he'll play all three downs with the kind of verve coaches want from their defensive captain. Reynolds says, Brown will “make like NaVorro Bowman and go from overlooked rookie to most wanted in short order”.
The fallers: It wasn’t until midway through the 2010 college football season that Ezekiel Nana "Ziggy" Ansah played in in his first college football game. This will cause teams to reevaluate selecting as high as many project him to go despite his potential. On offense, there could be a few QB’s that drop, or rise but I predict that Eddie Lacey will not be the first taken in the draft and will fall into the second round. I boldly predict the more versatile Giovani Bernard will be selected ahead of Lacey.
MAX:
On the Rise: SS Eric Reid, DE Lawrence Okoye, DT Jesse Williams WR Marquise Goodwin, FS Cody Davis, LB Kevin Minter, DE David King, CB D.J. Hayden, DE Cornelius Washington, QB Ryan Nassib, WR Sam McGuffie, SS D.J. Swearington, RB Michael Ford, RB Latavius Murray, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Terrance Williams
MATT:
The players whose stock will rise the most is Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib. Just a few days ago he wasn't in consideration for the first round. Now, there is talk that the Bills or the Jets could take him in the first. Nassib has a connection to the Bills as his college head coach, Doug Marrone, is now the Bills head coach. While this all could just be rumors, I think Nassib ends up going in the first.
On the flip side, I think Damontre Moore's stock will fall the most. The pass rusher from Texas A&M was considered to be a top five pick when the college season ended. Now that the draft process has started up, he is falling. He worked out poorly at both the combine and his pro day. Add that to off the field concerns, and you have the perfect prospect to fall. His fall could just be into the second round or, he could have a Justin Houston like fall all the way into the third.
5. Finally, which player will have the most emotional celebration with his girlfriend, mom, etc.?
JOHN:
You’re just trying to get us to say Lennay Kekau. She or he is going to go nuts when Te'o gets his named called. I wish Jermichael Finley could re-enter the draft so that he could be there with his wife, girlfriend, mistress and 2nd mistress.
ALAN:
Marcus Lattimore and even though he won’t be drafted in the first round, however Lattimore wants to celebrate once he is finally drafted is OK with me.
MATT:
Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State. After reading this ESPN article about him, I think Werner is in line for an emotional celebration with his wife. They married when he was 19 so she could go with him to Florida State. Adding to the fact, it looks like Werner is going to fall a little in the draft so that will make it more emotional. The last reason is that he is from Germany and American football isn't big over there. This moment will be the realization of a dream that had rough spots due to growing up in Germany. This just seems like a good fit and any guess here is going to be out of the blue.
