-For me this is basically a done deal and will likely be finalized on the morning of the draft. Not only does it change the first round by giving the Jets the 13th overall pick, but I think it could have a ripple effect. If the Buccaneers were to keep this pick, they would likely select a defensive tackle or reach for a cornerback. Another pass rusher or taking TE Tyler Eifert would also be long shot picks for the Bucs. Of those really only a pass rusher would make sense from the Jets perspective (they would need a corner, but given their other needs probably wouldn’t reach). That means teams look for a defensive tackle behind the Buccaneers, will feel more confidence in getting one. It also means that Eifert will slide into the 20’s, and corners will slide a bit as well.
The extra first round pick could have the Jets getting creative as well. With just one first round pick they probably would have focused it on adding a pass rusher, but with two top 15 picks, the Jets could justify adding a top guard like Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper. The Jets could also look to take playmaker Tavon Austin despite it being a bit of a reach. New York may also look to trade back with that Tampa Bay pick to not only stockpile some extra selections, but put themselves in a position to grab their quarterback later in the first round. If the Jets trade back to the early-to-mid 20’s, it could force a team like Arizona, Philly or Buffalo to try to trade up ahead of them so as to not let the Jets steal their top quarterback target.
It sounds crazy after just one offensive lineman went in the top 22 picks a year ago. Making it even more surprising is we are talking about two guards (Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper) and a right tackle only (D.J. Fluker) as three of those linemen set to go in the top 13. Assuming the Jets-Bucs trade above, you have the following teams in need of an offensive tackle: Chiefs, Jags, Raiders, Eagles, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Dolphins. Also you have the following teams in need of a guard: Jags, Raiders, Eagles* (it’s either or for the Eagles, they just need an impact offensive lineman), Lions, Browns, Cardinals, Bills, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Dolphins. That means every team in the top 13 (remember the Jets have two of those picks), need at least one offensive linemen and could easily justify the pick. Now of course some teams will decide to fill one of their other pressing needs, but it is very realistic that about half of the picks in the top 13 will end up as offensive linemen.
Despite the fact that only one quarterback (Geno Smith) should even be considered with a first round pick, I think a total of three will be selected in the first frame. Too many teams have uncertain quarterback situations, and still too many teams show desperation in trying to fix the quarterback spot. Teams may also value the fact that if a quarterback “makes it”, as a first rounder the team has an option for a 5th year of team control, something that wouldn’t be the case as a 2nd rounder (or later). Another thing that could help facilitate trading up is the deep draft class and the low price to move up from the high 2nd to the very end of the 1st round. As long as it is within selection spots, it probably won’t cost a team any more than a 4th and 6th rounder (if that, last year we saw two top 5 picks in the 2nd round move up into the bottom 5 of the 1st round for less than that).
Simulate the 2016 Draft with Trades!