by Steve Shoup
2012 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1, 2/02
February 2, 2012 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup
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Draft Blog, NFL Draft Page,Senior Bowl Coverage, 6 Round NFL Mock Draft
Trades can go a long way in shaping how a draft plays out. I thought it would be fun to look at how some deals can mix up the top 4 rounds.
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Indianapolis Colts- QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
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Cleveland Browns (via St. Louis)- QB Robert Griffin, Baylor : Rams get picks 4, 22, 4th rounder and 3rd rounder in 2013
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Minnesota Vikings- OT Matt Kalil, USC
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St. Louis Rams-CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
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Chicago Bears (via Washington)- WR Justin Blackmon, Ok. State: Redskins get 19th, 2nd, 3rd and 2013 2nd.
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Jaguars- WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
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Miami Dolphins- DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
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Carolina Panthers- DT Michael Brockers, LSU
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Cincinnati Bengals (via Buffalo Bills)- RB Trent Richardson, Alabama: Bills get 17th, 2nd round and 4th round picks
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Kansas City Chiefs: OG David DeCastro, Stanford
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Seattle Seahawks: DE Quinton Coples, UNC
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Arizona Cardinals: OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
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Dallas Cowboys: DE Devon Still, Penn State
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Philadelphia Eagles: MLB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
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New York Jets: OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
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Buffalo Bills: OLB Nick Perry, USC
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San Diego Chargers: WR Micheal Floyd, Notre Dame
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New England Patriots (via Washington): SS Mark Barron, Alabama- Washington gets 27th, 64, and 4th rounder
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Tennessee Titans: C Peter Konz, Wisconsin
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Cincinnati Bengals: CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
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St. Louis Rams: OT Mike Adams, Ohio State
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Detroit Lions: OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
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Philadelphia Eagles (via Pittsburgh): WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina, Steelers get 46, 3rd round 4th round and 6th round
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Denver Broncos: RB Lamar Miller, Miami
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Minnesota Vikings (via Houston): WR Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers Houston gets 2nd rounder, 4th rounder, 7th rounder and 2013 4th rounder
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Washington Redskins: QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
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Green Bay Packers: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
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Baltimore Ravens: ILB Dont’a Hightower, Alabama
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San Francisco 49ers: OG/OT Cordy Glenn, Georgia
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New York Giants: CB Chase Minnifield, UVA
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New England Patriots: DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State
I like the thinking of trading down for the Redskins if RGIII is gone and not reachable. But I just don’t see Tannehill lasting till 27 in this modern day and age
No way Cleveland trades up for Griffin. Heckert is in the business of amassing picks and building the whole team through the draft. They’ll give Colt another year with the new system, Shurmur, and now Childress to help. Add some weapons for Colt, shore up the defense, and actually look to trade back from 4.
No way the Browns give up that much for the 2nd pick. I could see our 4 and 22 but nothing else beyond that.
The Bills are moving back to a 4-3 so theres really no need for an OLB. Especially one that doesn’t look like he can put his hand in the dirt and play DE. If we trade back lets take Floyd we could use a big time WR.
@John- then they aren’t going to get RGIII
@Danny- Possible, but relying on Colt isn’t an answer. I could see them going after Flynn, or saying lets trade back and target Tannehill at 22 or Weeden in the 2nd, but Colt can’t be the answer (if he becomes it great, but if they don’t have a better option than Wallace they might not get another year).
@ Alec- By the sounds of it the Bills aren’t going to run a traditional 4-3, so having a player that can fit into both systems like Perry if very intriguing. WR is an option, but honestly their biggest offensive problem last year was a defense that couldn’t stop teams. With Jackson and Spiller the Bills should be running all over teams, which will allow Fitzpatrick to take things easier and not rush things. If I’m Buffalo I fix that defense and focus on offense in the mid rounds. I also say that because much of their free agency period will be determined by what to do with Jackson, Bell, Chandler etc.
@Jad-
Thanks! I agree Tannehill at 27 could be a stretch, but with him missing the Senior Bowl and possibly the Combine, his stock won’t be as high. While there are some teams that could trade up (namely Miami and Seattle) they might have a tougher time parting with those picks given their need to rebuild as well. Also one of those teams (or possibly the Skins) will land Matt Flynn taking them out of the market. For me though if Tannehill isn’t gone I wouldn’t panic as the Redskins and look to take Weeden with their early 2nd rounder, and instead at 27 I’d take Glenn.
Agree with Danny and John, there is no way the Browns trade up for RG3. Here’s some research done by a local journalist:
http://www.ohio.com/sports/marla-ridenour-browns-trading-up-in-nfl-draft-wouldn-t-fit-tom-heckert-s-profile-1.256517#
If you think the Browns want him, then fine, they can take him at #4, but they won’t give up both their first round picks just for RG3. The team has way too many holes to fill. Most likely the Browns will go after Kolb, Flynn, or Mallett (in NE) in the off-season. I can even see them drafting a QB at 22 or in later rounds. But there is honestly no way we give up so many picks to fill only one hole. We have needs at RT, WR, RB, DE, LB, CB, and S. With so many holes to fill, it sets the team backwards by giving up 3 picks just for one player. And in case you’ve seen the Browns, the talent surrounding McCoy is lacking. RG3 is great, but he’s not magical. The team will continue to suck with or without him next year unless we get talent elsewhere.
So you’re telling me the Redskins trade back twice to get the 27th overall pick, two second round picks, three third round picks and two fourth round picks along with an additional 3rd round pick 2013!
If only it were true. I don’t think New England is in favor for trading picks to move up. For what? They’re in the superbowl. I could buy the Chicago trade. Unlikely Cleveland will do such a thing.
I’m surprised no one has Seattle trading down with either New England or Cincinnati. Seattle needs D-line, O-line and possibly linebackers; both these teams have extra draft picks that would make this type of trade possible. New England would get the quality help they need on defensive line and Seattle would still be able to get good picks for their needs.
@Andrew-
Ryan Mallett would cost Cleveland at least a 1st rounder and the Pats are probably more likely to move Hoyer since he’ll be a free agent sooner. So I don’t see that as a viable option.
Yes Flynn could be an option or Kolb if he is released (which only happens if Manning goes to Arizona), but Cleveland might not land those guys, and this is the scenario if they don’t. While I understand why not to trade up, teams do overvalue the QB position, and I think it is pretty safe to say that someone will be looking to move up. Now for the Browns they at least have the two extra picks from the J. Jones deal still so at least they are trading from a strength. Also since there is only a 2 pick gap, they wouldn’t have to give up nearly as much. Teams like the Redskins, Seahawks, Dolphins all would have to pay quite a bit more given where their first is (and not having a 2nd first this year).
And I agree it is a risk esp. when you have all those needs, but teams pick QB’s all the time despite having that laundry list of needs, and they don’t have the cap flexibility that the Browns do. Of all the teams needing a franchise QB the Browns are the most likely to trade up. While i understand that isn’t in Heckert’s profile, but it isn’t like we have a long history for which to judge him on (not to mention Holmgren has a tremendous amount of say).
@ C. Reihl-
Honestly you can make a good case for just about any team to trade down, esp. at the top. But with Seattle I was able to land their top need with an elite player. Coples is a great fit for them and would be hard to pass up. A trade back is possible, though I already had the Bengals moving up for Trent Richardson, now if that didn’t work, then maybe they move up with Seattle to get him.
@Jegs-
Close, the Redskins would have 27th in the first round, 39th, 50th and 64th (if the Pats win on Sunday) in the 2nd round, 70th and 74th (the Bears pick via Carolina) in the 3rd round, and 103, 110 (from the Jason Campbell deal) and 128 i the 4th round, plus a 2nd rounder in 2013.
New England hasn’t traded many picks up, though they have made exceptions to the rule (Gronkowski in the 2nd round). Like you mentioned the Pats are a great team, so maybe at this point they don’t need quantity over quality. Their safety situation is a mess, and they had to supplement it with converted WR’s this season. Adding a stud like Barron is well worth the price of the last pick in both the 2nd and 4th round.
I really like that you have the Patriots picking 32 nd. I know your dislike for them but so much better than Giants.
I think Tannehill would be a good pick but I still feel Fole is going to bust out and be a really good to great QB with a little coaching. Also we could get him in a later round maybe the third.
I also think RGIII is going to greatly disappoint, I think the Heisman curse is in full effect with him.
Just a curiousity what do you think about Russell Wilson and where he would be drafted and what team will take a flyer on him?
Who is the pick @ 26 by the Vikings?
@Gary-
Honestly i’m not trying to predict there, just figured I’d let the record play out until it was decided on Sunday.
As for Foles, I was pretty disappointed with him Senior Bowl week. He had a real opportunity there with Tannehill out, and he really didn’t impress. He will probably be there in the 3rd but at this point I’d probably be more comfortable with Cousins.
Steve the Bills are playing a Wannstedt style 4-3. Lets just say that were running a hyrbir. How would drafting a player that can’t play in any 4-3 benefit our defense? Even if we do run a 3 man front every once in a while, it’ll be to drop more CB’s in coverage not a rush LB. At best he would also only be a 2 down player.
We have had two decent drafts in a row and we need to push on with that momentum and take a good prospect in the first. I think someone like Chandler Jones or Jared Crick in the second would be a much better fit for our defense and we could get them in the second. I agree our defense needs to get better but taking players that aren’t what we need won’t do that. Also besides for Stevie J(who’s a FA) we don’t have anyone at WR. Both wr’s still on the board, Jeffries and Floyd look like the better prospect than Perry.
Who do you have the Vikings trading up for at #26?
If the Browns give up both of their 1st round picks they would be overapaying to move up to the 2nd spot from 4th overall, it makes no sense at all, especially for a team in Cleveland’s position to give up more than their two 1sts.
Number 4 is the ideal spot for the Rams to trade down to, they would do it just for a 2nd rounder and the extra 4th rounder if the Redksins arent willing to give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 1st next year. If the Redskins only offer a 1st, 2nd and 3rd then they would take the Browns 4th overall pick, the 2nd and 4th rounder.
Blackmon/Kalil+2nd and 4th is better than neither of those players and a 2nd+3rd rounder. To beat the offer of the Browns two 1st round picks the Redskins will need to offer a 1st, 2nd, 3rd this year and at least a 1st and 2nd next year. Simply put, the Rams wont find a better offer than Blackmon/Kalil plus a 1st rounder.
I have no clue why you think any team would give up more than two 1st rounders two move up from 4th to 2nd. Just one second rounder without anyone else involved is enough to move up. Really it makes your entire mock draft invalid because it just makes no sense whatsoever to give up that much when it could potentially cost less than half of that to move up. Plus with the new CBA it doesnt cost as much to move up but you seem to have thrown logic out the window.
@Thomas-
I apologize for not having the Vikings player in there, it is WR Mohamed Sanu
@Stephan-
I know it seems like a high price, but with so many teams interested in RGIII it could be a very high price. Look teams overpay all the time for what they consider premier talent (ex. the Falcons last year with Julio Jones), it might sound crazy but it happens.
Look how much the Bears gave up for Jay Cutler, and he wasn’t a top 10 QB (and cost more).
Now I do agree that the trade value of RGIII goes down based on what other teams might offer, but the Redskins are apt to make a big trade given the heat that Mike Shanahan is under after the McNabb and Grossman/Beck debacles.
Its two spots, this isnt the Falcons and Browns its the Browns and Rams. The Falcons gave up a 1st, 2nd, 4th and a 1st and 4th. You have the Browns giving up TWO LOWER 1st ROUND PICKS IN THE SAME YEAR, a 4th and a 3rd two move up just TWO SPOTS. You essentially have them giving up the same amount in value, if not more than the Falcons, to move up two spots instead of 20ish. ARE YOU INSANE!?! Where is the logic in that?
But ignore the ridiclous trade and just look at the Browns situtation and see if your draft for them makes any sense. First off the Browns have no depth. They need a RB(if we let Hillis go), a RT, at least one G, a Y WR and a Z WR, 2 CBs, a FS, a OLB and a MLB(If Jackson leaves) and a Right DE all more than they need a QB. Remember, McCoy had no running game or protection all season not to mention I believe they led the league in drops. I dont think McCoy is the answer, but he is far from our biggest problem. Oh yeah, no off-season, a new coach and a very hard system to learn as well.
Lets pretend that their front office, who have been A+ with drafting in the 1st two rounds since they have been here, would make this insane trade. They get Griffin in the 1st and then I am assuming you have them taking a RT in the 2nd. Then one of their many other needs in the 3rd.
That means they literally only add two players to their roster next season assuming all 3 picks work out. There is no chance they start Griffin over McCoy next season, it would just be stupid to throw in a QB who has never read a defense or taken a snap under center and who has bad footwork as well, into the WCO with just one good WR who has a tendency to drop balls and no RB. He will also have a shaky o-line.
Basically your saying the Browns draft Griffin for the sole purpose of ending his career before it even got a chance to start or they just add a RT and another player to the roster next season while RG3 sits. Their record will likely not improve with pretty much the same exact roster they had last year and they could be in a position to draft a great WCO QB prospect next year in Matt Barkley.
Why not just draft Barkley next year and not give up so many starters, that we need, this year? He is a better prospect and better fit but you have them giving up way to much for a QB who is a huge risk.
The trade makes no sense and neither do the potential draft picks that go along with the trade. Essentially nothing changes. This is one of the most important drafts in Browns history, they arent going to throw it away by taking a huge risk, let alone a Big 12 QB(name one d*** Big 12 QB who has been good since Aikman, they all suck in the NFL).
Whats your reasoning behind the Steelers trading that far back? Also could you at least share who there first pick might be (if they stayed at 24 and who they’d pick at 46)?
@Stephan-
I don’t disagree with you about the risks, but the Browns are very likely to trade up for RGIII if they don’t land Flynn. Maybe they can get him for less (say not include that pick in 2013) but its still going to cost quite a bit. The fact that the Falcons moved up 20+spots isn’t the point. The point here is they grossly overpaid for a player (and a position that has limited value). They could have stayed right where they were and taken Baldwin, or nab LIttle in the 2nd round, and be better off.
Look at the Ryan Leaf deal where the Chargers gave up their first, 2nd round picks in 1998, 1st in 1999 and two players (one of whom was there 2nd rounder in 1997) just to move up 1 spot. And that was before teams were so QB crazy or a rookie salary cap was in place. Teams make these types of overpaying deals all the time.
@Bret-
I have the Steelers moving back because I really think they need to. Their cap situation is dire this season, meaning they will have to get rid of a bunch of players just to get under the cap, and they really won’t be able to sign any replacements. Right now I have them penciled in to take NT Dontari Poe with that 46th pick and ILB Bobby Wagner with their own 2nd rounder.
I completely agree with Stephen on this.
I have to agree with Stephan. This Browns trade seems to be based on the following logic:
1. Lots of teams will want RG3
2. The Browns will choose to outbid them in order to land RG3
3. The Browns aren’t going to find another QB anywhere else, including the later rounds
Those are three large assumptions. There is no evidence to support that either Holmgren or Heckert will trade up and spend valuable picks on one player. RG3 doesn’t fit the Browns offense better than any other QB in the draft. Holmgren took a risk with McCoy in the 3rd round two years ago. I can see him doing this again and taking a QB in the 2nd or later as competition, but to spend so much to draft at #2? You almost HAVE to start RG3, and that goes against what Holmgren, Heckert, and Shurmur said regarding their plans for a QB next year. They want a competition. You can’t draft a QB at #2, giving up so many picks which could be filled at other holes, just to have this guy potentially get beat out or not start. That would be suicide for the Browns front office. Just isn’t going to happen. And Holmgren/Heckert are good to their word so the QB competition will happen next year. I know you want to try and fit this scheme in because you believe RG3 is a talented prospect, but it doesn’t mean that it’s possible. There is no conventional wisdom that the Browns would trade up, at all. They could easily fill in other needs and if McCoy doesn’t work out, then we have a high draft pick next year and we take Barkley or another great prospect. That is much smarter than such a massive risk at the moment.
The Browns have had two great drafts and gotten solid starters out of it. They aren’t in a position where they can bet the farm on one guy yet. This isn’t that time and I guarantee this situation won’t happen come Draft day. Guaranteed.
@Andrew-
What is the evidence to support that they won’t trade up for that one player?
If the Browns don’t workout this season then Heckart and company could be looking for jobs.While I agree the Browns are heading in the right direction, I think there will be pressure to get a QB. And Holmgren has shown a willingness to do that, and give up quite a bit to land one. Holmgren gave up a pretty good amount for a completely unproven Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle. If he views RGIII as his guy do you really think he won’t do the same?
Why would Heckert and Holmgren be looking for jobs if they fail this season? Because you only get 3 years to win a championship? The Browns have had that mentality since they came back and look where we are now. Our owner will keep the front office long term because part of the reason the Browns keep failing is because we turn our personnel over too much. Holmgren isn’t worried about his job, and Heckert is regularly praised for his.
And regardless of the pressure, Heckert and Holmgren have done what they need to do to improve the team. A lot of people weren’t sold on Joe Haden going at #7, and he’s doing just fine. Phil Taylor and Sheard did just as well.
Also, you really chose to call the Hasselback to Seattle deal as unproven? Let me get this straight: Holmgren goes after a QB who he coached in his own system for years in Green Bay, who sat behind a Hall of Fame QB (Favre), and matured and gained significant understanding of Holmgren’s playbook during his time there, the SAME play style Holmgren was trying to implement in Seattle. Yet Hassleback was completely unproven and this was a significant risk? What do you call RG3 (who he has never coached, has never played in Holmgren’s offensive system, and has NO experience in the NFL)? THAT is a significant risk considering the cost.
Holmgren already proved he keeps this mentality, that’s why he signed Seneca Wallace to the team when he came over (who was Hasselback’s back up in Seattle). THAT is proven mentality of Holmgren, not using two 1st round picks to move up two spots for a guy who he isn’t even sure fits into his system.
I will concede that the Browns may draft RG3 if he falls to #4, because Holmgren may like the kid’s style. But I can’t see any way the Browns would trade up. True some teams overvalue QBs. But there is more proof that the Redskins management would make this trade than the Browns. And that is why I can’t believe this mock draft.
@Andrew:
Hasselbeck was unproven, Holmgren had him for only one year when the guy was a 3rd string QB. He was a late round pick after a poor college career. Yes he knew the system, but he had 29 NFL attempts to his name of which he completed just 44% of, at 5 yards per attempt. For that Holmgren agreed to give up the 10th pick and 72nd pick, for Hasselbeck and the 17th pick. So essentially he traded a 2nd (the value between the 10th and 17th) and 3rd rounder for Hasselbeck, then preceded to sign him for an extension at a good rate.
I don’t think Holmgren will be gone (though as many Cleveland papers have said, Holmgren isn’t going to stay in Cleveland forever), but Heckart and Fritz could be on their way out. The Browns have won, what 9 games the past two years. If they were to have another season of 4-6 wins (esp. with their state/division rivals now a contender) I think some changes could be made.
And what is the proof that the Redskins would trade up for RGIII? Mike Shanahan has only ever traded up for 1 QB Jay Cutler, but he had extra draft picks that year (ironically from the Redskins). Shanny has gone the vet route with McNabb, but that burned him. Also Shanahan would have to trade even more than the Browns are giving up for RGIII.