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Looking Back, Ahead

3:00 pm in Rankings, Recaps, Recruiting by Rob Yunich

As expected, Kentucky completed a season atop (or near the top) of the polls after winning the national championship with a 67-59 win over Kansas that wasn’t as close as the score might indicate. The question now for Kentucky is in two parts: how many players will leave for the NBA and who will replace them next season in Lexington?

As for the final poll, after Kentucky, the rest of the top-10 were Kansas, Ohio State, Louisville, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State, Baylor, Florida, and Marquette.

Other than Kentucky’s dominance, three other story lines emerged out of this past season:

1. The Big East is still dominant, getting nine teams into the tournament, one to the Final Four (Louisville) for the third straight season and another to the Elite Eight (Syracuse).

2. Kentucky’s one-and-done model worked, but its sustainability will still be questioned. John Calipari likes to defend his philosophy but eventually his team is going to tank — and considering this was his first national title, he’s still not in the same league as others with multiple championships.

3. The top seeds still dominate. If you look at the past 28 national champs, 16 were captured by No. 1 seeds and, of the remaining 12 teams, only three defeated No. 1 seeds to win the title (not including when No. 1 seeds faced each other). Only two were not a top-four seed and no team outside a BCS conference has won a title since the 1990 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.

Moving forward, every team is affected by players leaving, and that’s especially true of the Elite Eight. The main recruiting season is done but there are a few top players who haven’t committed yet: ESPN’s No. 1 recruit Nerlens Noel, who has narrowed his choices down to Syracuse, Kentucky and Georgetown; ESPN’s No. 2 recruit Shabazz Muhammad, who has a longer list of UCLA, USC, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and UNLV; and ESPN’s No. 7 recruit Anthony Bennett, whose choices are Florida, Kentucky, Washington, Oregon and UNLV.

So far, ESPN’s top-15 recruiting classes are Arizona, Texas, Baylor, North Carolina, Michigan State, N.C. State, Providence, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Xavier, and Syracuse — but that certainly can be changed by any of the players listed above.

With all of that, here’s the really early top-25 by ESPN’s Andy Katz:

1. Indiana
2. Louisville
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
5. Ohio State
6. N.C. State
7. Michigan State
8. Michigan
9. Florida
10. Baylor
11. North Carolina
12. Arizona
13. Memphis
14. Syracuse
15. Duke
16. Texas
17. Notre Dame
18. Creighton
19. Gonzaga
20. Kansas State
21. Wisconsin
22. VCU
23. San Diego State
24. Tennessee
25. Missouri

As you can see, teams ranked 2-5 comprised this year’s Final Four and four more in the top-15 made it to the Elite Eight. Other changes for next season include Missouri’s move to the SEC as well as West Virginia’s and TCU’s exit to the Big 12. Bigger changes are in store for 2013-14, but we’re not even close to discussing that yet.

Enjoy your summer and check back here for occasional updates.

National Championship Preview: Kentucky vs. Kansas

8:50 pm in Final Four, Preview, Recaps by Rob Yunich

The University of Kentucky has been able to defend its No. 1 overall seed against different styles, different sizes, and different opponents. Last night against Louisville, they were a bit flustered by the Cardinals’ match-up zone, but prevailed because of superior size and skill — despite being out-rebounded, 37-32. Kansas, meanwhile, seemingly came out of nowhere early in the season, gained momentum throughout the campaign and has put an exclamation point on its tournament performance by defeating the University of North Carolina and the Ohio State University in the Midwest Regional Final and national semifinal, respectively, to reach the opportunity to square off with Kentucky for the national title tomorrow night just after 9 p.m.

The Wildcats and Jayhawks, the two winningest programs in the history of college basketball, have only met twice in the tournament since 1985– an 88-76 Kansas win in the 2007 second round and a 92-88 Kentucky win, also in the 1999 second round. Kentucky leads the all-time series, 20-6, including a 75-65 win on Nov. 15. Their season-long averages are quite similar: Kansas averaged 73.9 points per game and allowed 61.6, while Kentucky scored 77.6 points per game and allowed 60.6.

Kansas has the offensive pedigree and defensive ability to match Kentucky like no other opponent has this tournament — or this season, for that matter. Louisville may has provided a blueprint for Kansas to beat the Wildcats, especially if the Jayhawks’ triangle-and-two zone can reek havoc and if Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ends up in foul trouble, which he did against the Cardinals.

Self, who today was named the Naismith Men’s College Basketball Coach of the Year, can unleash a big man (Thomas Robinson) that can give the Wildcats’ all-world freshman Anthony Davis the most difficult night of his career. Robinson, after all, scored 19 points in his battle with Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger last night. It’s very possible that Davis, Robinson and Sullinger will be in the NBA next season along with a several others playing in the title tilt.

Like many other opponents of Kentucky this season, Kansas must execute perfectly and convert on a large number of their shots. They made 44.6 percent of their shots against Ohio State, but were down 34-25 at halftime. Overcoming a similar halftime deficit against Kentucky might not be as feasible. They out-rebounded Ohio State, 41-30, something they must repeat against Kentucky.

Kentucky, meanwhile, just needs to keep doing what it’s been doing all season. They simply have overcome every challenge and swatted away every opponent. Yes, they lost to Indiana in December and Vanderbilt two weeks ago (in the SEC tournament final played across the street from the Superdome), but it seems that the magic has never left the Wildcats’ paws. Kansas may provide the most valiant challenge to Kentucky’s ascension to basketball immortality, but in the end, it appears the Wildcats will capture its first championship since 1998 and John Calipari his first title.

Final predicted score: Kentucky 75, Kansas 71.

Final Four Preview: Ohio State vs. Kansas

10:23 am in Final Four, Preview by Rob Yunich

Who/When: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Kansas, Saturday, 8:49 p.m. (CBS)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg

How They Got Here: Ohio State defeated No. 15 Loyola (Md.), 78-59, No. 7 Gonzaga, 73-66, No. 6 Cincinnati, 81-66, and No. 1 Syracuse, 77-70; Kansas defeated No. 15 Detroit, 65-50, No. 10 Purdue, 63-60, No. 11 N.C. State, 60-57, and No. 1 North Carolina, 80-67.

Coaches: Thad Matta (323–95 overall, 221–64 in eight seasons at OSU); Bill Self (475–157 overall, 268–52 in nine seasons at Kansas)

Ohio State in the Final Four:
Overall: 11th appearance (including 1999, when it was vacated)
Last Appearance: 2007, lost to Florida, 84-75, in national title game
Last Championship: 1960, defeated California, 75-55
Number of Titles: 1 (1960)

Kansas in the Final Four:
Overall: 14th appearance
Last Appearance: 2008, defeated Memphis, 75-68, to win national championship
Last Title: 2008, defeated Memphis, 75-68
Number of Titles: 3 (1952, 1988, 2008)

Ohio State’s View: Everything revolves around Jared Sullinger, who missed the Buckeyes’ 78-67 loss at Kansas on Dec. 10. In the East Regional Final against Syracuse, Sullinger only played six minutes in the first half because of foul trouble but played the entire second half, finishing with 19 points and seven rebounds. Syracuse didn’t have an answer for Sullinger and that ultimately led to their demise. The other big factor in that game, and one that has aided the Buckeyes through the tournament, is defense. They allowed just 59.7 points per game this season, and that tenacity in defending their basketball stretches throughout the entire roster. Guard Aaron Craft only had one steal against Syracuse, but made life miserable for Scoop Jardine all game, which took Syracuse out of its entire offensive rhythm. The other starters — Lenzelle Smith, Jr., William Buford, and Deshaun Thomas — are really good on both ends of the floor. But the team operates much better when Sullinger is playing — and he needs to play more than 26 minutes against Kansas if they’re going to return to the national title game.

Kansas’ View: The Jayhawks can play their share of defense too, and they’ve also got a big man — Thomas Robinson — who makes everything better. Robinson had 18 points and nine rebounds against North Carolina in the regional final, while guard Tyshawn Taylor had 22 points, six rebounds and five assists. But the main reason they defeated the Tar Heels was defense, specifically Self’s triangle-and-two scheme that held UNC to seven of 31 shooting after halftime and no baskets over the last 5:46 of regulation. That’s the key for the Jayhawks against the Buckeyes too. Ohio State does not boast the same offensive gifts as the Tar Heels, but their defense is much better than North Carolina’s system.

Quotable: “Past teams, we just had so many weapons that could score from so many different spots. If we weren’t all the way in tune defensively, we could cover that up by making some shots. And we knew at the beginning of the year that it wouldn’t be the same.” – Tyshawn Taylor

What I Expect: This game could get ugly quickly, but not in the traditional sense of the phrase. It’ll be a defensive struggle and a big-time battle between Sullinger and Robinson in the paint. Craft could frustrate Taylor quickly, which will give a pretty big advantage to the Buckeyes. OSU’s balance and depth, as well as Sullinger’s amazing gifts, will prevail — possibly in overtime.

Prediction: OSU advances to face Kentucky in the national championship game.

Final Four Preview: Kentucky vs. Louisville

3:11 pm in Final Four, Preview by Rob Yunich

Who/When: No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals, Saturday, 6:09 p.m. (CBS)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg

How They Got Here: Kentucky beat No. 16 Western Kentucky, 81-66, No. 8 Iowa State, 87-71, No. 4 Indiana, 102-90, and No. 3 Baylor, 82-70; Louisville defeated No. 13 Davidson, 69-62, No. 5 New Mexico, 59-56, No. 1 Michigan State, 57-44, and No. 7 Florida, 72-68.

Coaches: John Calipari (503–152 overall, 100-14 in three seasons at Kentucky); Rick Pitino (616–227 overall, 262–99 in 11 seasons at Louisville)

Kentucky in the Final Four:
Overall: 15th appearance
Last Appearance: 2011, lost to UConn., 56-55, in national semifinals
Last Championship: 1998, defeated Utah, 78–69
Number of Titles: 7 (1948, 1949, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996, 1998)

Louisville in the Final Four:
Overall: 9th appearance
Last Appearance: 2005, lost to Illinois, 72-57, in national semifinals
Last Title: 1986, defeated Duke, 72-69
Number of Titles: 2 (1980, 1986)

Kentucky’s View: The Wildcats cruised pretty easily through the first four games of the tournament, paced by their killer combination of Anthony Davis, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — who could match many NBA rosters in terms of talent. They’ve got a great offense and defense, are playing with poise and composure (considering there are only four juniors and seniors on the entire roster and none in the starting line-up). The team simply has been better than every opponent this season. But it has lost two games — and that’s the rub on a single-elimination tournament. They might be the best team every time they play, but a Final Four is so much more than just what happens on the court. It’s the battle of the coaches, the friends and family in the stands and, in this case, the animosity between two schools they occupy the same state and have two crazy-mad fan bases. There’s no doubting that UK has everything it takes to win the title, but there are many other factors it must battle — including the fact that it lost the last time it entered New Orleans as the overwhelming favorite: that came in the SEC tournament title game to Vanderbilt, 71-64.

Louisville’s View: If the Cardinals are going to beat the Wildcats, a few things need to happen. One, their defense must play the best game it has played all season. Louisville held Michigan State to 28.6 percent shooting and just 18 first-half points while Draymond Green scored just 13 points. Kentucky’s Anthony Davis is better than Green and the Wildcats have a more potent and balanced scoring attack than the Spartans. But the Cardinals have a mix of tricks that can totally confuse the Wildcats and Pitino is doing his best Bill Belichick impression when it comes to defensive wizardry. The biggest test, believe it or not, for Louisville is going to come on offense, as the Cardinals are not a scoring machine and the Wildcats have a very good defense.

Quotable: “There will be people at Kentucky that will have a nervous breakdown if they lose to us. You’ve got to watch. They’ve got to put the fences up on bridges. There will be people consumed by Louisville.” – Rick Pitino after capturing the West Regional Final

What I Expect: This game will come down to the battle when Kentucky has the ball. If the Cardinals can slow down the Wildcats, which I think is feasible, then it’ll be lower scoring and slower in tempo. But Louisville just doesn’t have enough weapons to completely shut down Kentucky the way it did to Michigan State. They were fortunate to vanquish Florida — and Kentucky is much better than the Gators.

Prediction: Kentucky returns to the national championship game.

Final Four Week Begins

8:52 pm in Final Four, Preview by Rob Yunich

With Louisville, Kentucky, Kansas and Ohio State clinching berths in the Final Four over the weekend, here are some notes and stats to whet your appetite for the big games in New Orleans:

* This year’s Final Four only includes one No. 1 seed — one year after no top seeds made the Final Four. Last year, the highest seed was a No. 3 (Connecticut), who won the title. In fact, the last time a team that wasn’t the highest remaining seed (including multiple No. 1 seeds) won the tournament was 2006, when No. 3 Florida beat No. 2 UCLA.

* I’m not sure if the committee had this in mind when they set the brackets, but boy does Louisville vs. Kentucky have some history. Firstly, coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari have faced each other in the tournament — but not at their current schools. In the 1992 East Regional Semifinal (aka Sweet 16) and 1996 Final Four, Pitino’s Kentucky squad beat Calipari’s University of Massachusetts team by seven and 10, respectively. (The 1996 Minutemen later vacated its five tournament games.) The 1996 Wildcats went on to beat Syracuse for the national title, while the 1992 Wildcats lost in the Elite Eight to Duke on Christian Laettner’s famous shot.

* But wait… there’s more… Kentucky and Louisville have been playing each other since 1913 (although not every year) and Kentucky leads the series, 29-14 — including a 69-62 win on Dec. 31, 2011 in Lexington. The teams have split four all-time meetings in the NCAA tournament, with the last coming in the 1984 Sweet 16. Needless to say, there’s some history between these in-state rivals.

* The other match-up, Kansas vs. Ohio State, is nowhere near as heated, but includes two No. 2 seeds — which therefore gives it the later game on Saturday. It should also be a close game — but for very different reasons. (More on that later in the week.)

* Louisville is the third straight Big East tournament champion to make it to the Final Four. Last year, UConn. added the national title, while West Virginia lost to Duke in the national semifinals the year before.

* Three of the Final Four participants have won national titles before — and in fact, they’ve combined for 12 NCAA tournament crowns. Only Ohio State has never captured the championship.

* Comparing the four coaches, Rick Pitino leads most of the major categories — including all-time wins and NCAA tournament berths. Calipari is second, followed by Kansas’ Bill Self and Ohio State’s Thad Matta. Interestingly enough, though, Self’s teams have a higher points-per-game and field-goal percentage average than the others. Where it matters most (number of titles), though, only two coaches have delivered a crown (and they’ve each only done it once): Pitino (1996 with Kentucky) and Self (2008 with Kansas).

* The four top conferences (as rated by RealTimeRPI.com) are the same as the quartet represented in New Orleans. In order, they’re the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12 and SEC.

* Finally, if you’re thinking of going to the games, tickets (according to TicketNetwork.com, a Fanspeak partner) range from $233 to about $5,000.