I don’t “blog” much, I just like to share my quick thoughts in comments and gamebreak updates. But this topic makes me write a little more in-depth.

When I say “this topic”, I mean rise in RG3 to Redskins chatter & rumors this week.  I don’t know why, but I just can’t get excited about this. Or should I say, I’m nervous about this!

First, I’ll say Steve has trained me to value draft picks overall and I know the smart thing for Redskins to do would be trade back and get more picks in early rounds and take Brandon Weeden in late first or early 2nd round.  And let me say, I would be super excited if this happened. I also wouldn’t mind taking Tannehill at #6 pick (and then fill other needs in other rounds) with all other picks in tact since we didn’t trade up.

I’ll further say, that I’m alright trading up for Andrew Luck but not RG3.  Yes, I know RG3 is an amazing athlete, and not just a runner but a good passer and smart…yada, yada, yada.  So why am I nervous about him?  And why do I feel comfortable mortgaging Redskins future for Luck but not RG3?  Simple answer…I feel Andrew Luck is about as close to a “sure thing” as you’ll get in the NFL.  The longer answer below…

1) Athlete & Quarterback are two separate things that get mushed together all the time.  Yes, having an athletic quarterback is important but he has to be a pure passer, cerebral quarterback first!  To me, RG3 looks like a track star first than QB that can make reads in a complex West Coast Offense second.  Andrew Luck is still athletic, but has more experience in a more complex offense.

2) Because of their sizes, I worry RG3 could have more injury issues (which can really set back or ruin a potential franchise QB)…Especially with Redskins if they don’t address offensive line.  Andrew Luck is bigger and built more like Cam Newton (and had comparable Combine numbers to Cam Newton).

3) They hype/one year wonder terrifies me! Yes, I know RG3 wasn’t a one-year wonder, but he kinda came out of nowhere this year.  I’d rather the less sexy, yet more consistent pick in Luck.

My #1 point is most important…bottom line I think it will take RG3 much longer to adapt to Shanny & son’s West Coast Offense than people think.  I think people are blown away by his athleticism and forget there’s so much more to being an NFL Quarterback, especially in Shanny’s system.  I think Luck will have a much easier transition, and I think he will be a field general like Mannings, Brady, Brees and the other franchise QBs.  I think he is a sure thing and the next Manning, Elway, etc.

Yes, RG3 could be amazing, its just not a risk I want to take.   Redskins fans have been burned over and over and over again!  I’m actually shocked so many Redskins fans think he’s a sure thing or have forgot how many times we’ve been burned.  If we’re going to take the risky approach, why not be for Luck?!  Or should I say If we’re NOT going to go the safe route of Brandon Weeden or Tannehill, then we have to trade up for Luck instead of RG3.

Most of you will say, Luck isn’t an option…Indy is 100% taking him.  I’m not sold on that for 2 reasons. 1) I’m not so sure they won’t get sucked into the Griffin hype and take him #1 overall. And 2) I also don’t believe the #1 pick might not actually be “for sale”.

So the order in which I hope Redskins handle Quarterback in NFL Draft is:

1) Trade back, get more early picks and take Brandon Weeden – safe & build for future with still a very good Qb!

2) Trade up for Andrew Luck – mortgage the future but you now have future Hall of Fame QB on your team to build around!

3) Take Ryan Tannehill with #6 pick (Qbs are overvalued and he won’t make it past Dolphins at #8).

4) The RG3 trade…if this happens, I’ll be nervous until the season starts!!

So instead of writing my weekly Redskins pre-game blog, I’d like to share with everyone and fellow Redskins fans my Redskins math.  So everyone around me thinks I’m borderline clinically insane for being hopeful for Redskins playoff chances every season.  While that may be true, this season with Shanahan & McNabb, I don’t think its AS crazy.

But that’s what we root for as fans right?  Your team to make the playoffs.  I’m the type of Redskins fan that literally does not give up on them until they are absolutely mathematically out of the playoff hunt.  So in my defense, I don’t think its crazy to believe… especially this season (I mean the Chiefs are 3-0 right now), anything can happen and I think the NFC East is anyone’s to take!   And I’d like to have playoff aspirations past Halloween this season!

So with the difficult schedule that lies ahead…this is my Redskins math.  We need atleast 9-10 games to make the playoffs, let’s say 10 to be safe and probably atleast 11 to win the division.  So I’m taking the season in 4 game increments.  See…

-If we can go 2-2 over the next 4 difficult games (Packers, Colts, Bears, Lions), then we’ll be ok heading into our bye week.

-Then we need to go 3-1 over the next 4 games (Eagles, Titans, Vikings, Giants).  This will be the biggest challenge in my mind because Giants and Titans are away and Eagles could have Vick back and Vikings will have better receivers by then.

-Finally, we need to go 3-1 over last 4 games (Buccaneers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants).  I think this is an attainable goal, as I think the largest hurdle will be Dallas in Dallas.

That’s how I’m looking at the season to reach our ultimate goal…playoffs, where anything can happen!  Now of course, I hope we do better than 10-6 and win the division and have a home playoff game…but baby steps!  Also, obviously if we have a lower record in any particular period of time, we’ll need to make up for it during the next period.  That or hope the NFC is weak enough to have a 9-7 or even 8-8 playoff record…its happened before.

And Redskins fans…like I said, this is a very attainable goal once you break it down like this.  It can happen…just believe in our Skinnies!

HTTR!

So after an incredibly dissapointing week, I’m wondering what on earth the Redskins can do to pull out an upset at the Linc tomorrow.  In the last 6 quarters, every phase of the team has let us down.  So I’m wondering is this a schizophrenic team or are they bad and played a good first 6 quarters or are they good and played a bad last 6 quarters?  It seems like we haven’t been able to identify who the 2010 Redskins really are.

So in this game against the Eagles, they’re going to have to show their true identity and I’m hoping it was the team that beat the Cowboys and was beating the Texans by 17 points!

To do that these are the keys to the game…

-Coaching- I think they are the most to blame lately!  So they need to A) use right personnel (not Heyer and not Roydell Williams) and B) gameplan/scheme better to pressure the quarterback and get in the endzone when in the redzone.

-McNabb – I think they 2nd biggest key to the game is how McNabb plays in his homecoming.  I hope he has the revenge game of the decade, better than Favre’s!

-Defense & Haslett and controlling Vick – Jim Haslett  needs to get his secondary in shape – they looked like a joke against the RAMS last week.  So hopefully we find a way to control Michael Vick.  I know we won’t completely shut him down (though I’d be the first to applaud his fall from grace…the reports on him are making me nauseaus!), but we need to atleast force him to beat us with his arm, not his feet.  But we can’t do it so much so that Jackson is already open.  This is the area of the game I’m most nervous about!

-Special Teams – NO blocked kicks or punts please!  And let’s not let Jackson run one back either!

Please get an upset Skinnies…your fans need it!  HTTR!

So how can the Redskins break their streak of playing “down” to teams that are worse than them?  They have been notorious for that in the past, losing to the Lions, Rams and Chiefs the past couple seasons.  I’m hoping Mike Shanahan (a real coach) is one difference, as I think he has a much more disciplined team.  I think to prove to everyone that the Redskins are indeed heading in the right direction, it would actually be nice to see the Redskins win today, but win convincingly.  Wouldn’t it be fun as Redskins fans to NOT be nervous the last 2 minutes of the game?!

So here are the keys to today’s game (some may be obvious)…

-Running Game – The Redskins need to get this running game going this season.  The passing game will never be as good as last week if they cannot get the running attack to be effective.  Hope the Shanahans open up their playbook and Portis has a succesful day.  If so, McNabb too will have a good day!

-Red Zone – They’ve got to score in the Red Zone and not settle for field goals…that was obviously are problem last week.

-Pressure on Bradford – We need to take advantage playing a young quarterback and get pressure on him.  I think if we sack him a couple times and pressure him, he’ll throw an interception or two!

-Secondary – They looked awful last week, so hopefully they are angry and have something to prove this week.  Hopefully the don’t make the Rams offense look like Pro Bowlers.

Hopefully by tonight we will be a convincing 2-1 team!  HTTR!

So to continue my Redskins Gameday blog posts, here are my thoughts on the Redskins first game of the 2010 season…a season that should be much improved!

Its been Cowboys week or Rivalry week and we as Redskins fans are hopeful for a great game and exciting season!  I think with McNabb, Shanahan, improvements to the offensive line, the 3-4 defense featuring Orakpo and hopefully Haynesworth, and some young hopefuls, that the Redskins can return to a team that expects to make the playoffs!  I joke around, but I honestly think they can go 10-6 this season and make the playoffs!

Its starts tonight, and these are the keys to the Redskins winning tonight’s game and starting the season shocking the NFL and the Cowboys…

-Offensive Line: They need to show that they are an improved, cohesive unit and keep McNabb healthy and on his feet.

-McNabb: He needs to stay healthy this year and have a statement game tonight and show that the Eagles were wrong from moving on from him.

-Defense WITH Haynesorth: They need to utilize Haynesworth effectively to cause Romo and the Cowboys to make some crucial turnovers tonight!

-Special Teams: Let’s hope keeping Branden Banks was a good move and that we have some good returns tonight (a return for a touchdown wouldn’t hurt either).  Graham Gano needs to have a consisent game, even with the inclement weather.  Even though we need touchdowns, not field goals, he needs to make the most of every field goal opportunity because every point will count tonight!

Go Skinnies!  HTTR!