On Target: Unplanned Surprises

By Davis Mattek

The only thing that I know is that I know nothing. These words, rooted in the beginning of the school of philosophy, should be the creed of every fantasy football player. Our preseason projections are long forgotten at this phase of the season, and every week gives us more data points to improve our fantasy teams. Given that we have reached the halfway marker of the fantasy football season (assuming most leagues begin their playoffs at Week 13), today’s analysis will center on pass catchers who have surprised with a lack or surplus of targets and if there is action to be made based off the results.

First, a table of every player who has received more than 25 targets in 2014 (click columns to sort):

PLEASANT SURPRISES

Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders

Holmes was a favorite of mine before the start of the season as I believed he was the only WR going after the 10th round of drafts that offered true WR1 upside. He’s had three starts for the Raiders and two were monster games, while the third was plenty quiet. He’s seeing 17 percent of the teams’ non-Denarious Moore targets, which matters as Moore has basically been benched for the foreseeable future. Holmes sports a nifty 9-percent TD rate on a per-target basis, which is 4 percent higher than 5.2 percent average of this group, and I expect that rate to continue. He’s big, fast and basically free in all formats. If seasonal leagues, he is probably my favorite trade target this week and in daily fantasy, he’ll continue to be an awesome option as long as he is priced appropriately.

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson has been lackluster in terms of TD production (only one touchdown on 53 targets), but he has been a safe floor option week to week in PPR leagues. The Jaguars simply are not effective running the ball, despite Denard Robinson‘s success last week against Cleveland. I don’t expect another 100-yard rushing game from Denard in the near future, and with the Jaguars running 62 offensive plays per game (slightly above average), I don’t think there is any reason to believe that the steady stream of targets that have been coming Robinson’s way will change anytime soon. Blake Bortles has mostly struggled, but he continues to find Robinson, especially late in games when the team is usually trailing. He isn’t exciting, as he doesn’t play for a good offense but he is the perfect third or fourth wide receiver in a deeper league as he is seeing 21 percent of the targets for a team that passes 35 times a game.

DISAPPOINTING INVESTMENTS

Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns

This one is absolutely bewildering. Mike Pettine and his coaching staff have made some serious errors this season, but not getting Cameron more involved in the offense is the most egregious. In an offense that relies on running the ball to move between the 20s, it is imperative that drives end in touchdowns and not field goals. Passes, on average, are more successful than runs and Cameron is the best red-zone option the team has. Andrew Hawkins is 0-for-the season in the red zone, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. They’ve been using Taylor Gabriel and Travis Benjamin in the way we expected Cameron to be used and unfortunately, I don’t see change on the horizon. As long as Brian Hoyer remains the starting quarterback for Cleveland we will continue to see bland offensive sets and a lack of real production for Cameron. If and when Johnny Manziel starts a game for the Browns, we should expect to see more downfield throws, more play action and more points generated but until that day, Cameron is a truly boom-or-bust fantasy option.

Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans

Oh, my friends, where did we go wrong? Things were set up perfectly for a breakout year from Hunter. He’s played a majority of the snaps for the Titans on the outside, had a classic bad ball QB in Jake Locker and his only threat for red-zone work was the puny Kendall Wright. Those who invested in Hunter have been rewarded with only one touchdown and 16 catches. It would appear that brighter days are not on the horizon for Hunter as he had his worst game of the season against the putrid defensive backs in Washington. There is definitely someone who still believes the hype in your league, and as much as I loved Hunter to start the season, I don’t see it happening for him this year. For daily fantasy, he is almost always bottom-of-the-barrel priced, but I can’t justify using him in a cash game with the lack of involvement in the offense. He make an intriguing play in tournament formats from week to week, though.

Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers

I never saw it happening for Wheaton. He was not efficient in college, couldn’t fight his way on to the field as a rookie and, in my opinion, is not an exceedingly talented player. He doesn’t have the athleticism to really beat cornerbacks deep or in the air and therefore, his fantasy ceiling will always be limited. There were some in the fantasy community who thought Wheaton had WR2 potential this year, but after watching seven games of him in action, it’s painfully obvious that he isn’t ownable in fantasy. His best game this season is 7-for-97 and also had a game where he turned 11 targets into 33 yards. Despite the target volume, Wheaton doesn’t have the talent to capitalize on his opportunity and has already ceded snaps to rookie Martavis Bryant, who has more NFL touchdowns than Wheaton on only five targets. If you can find someone in your league willing to take on Wheaton for almost any return, do it.