Bust in Disguise

By Guest Writer EJ McKinley:

For a long time Geno Smith was hailed as the top quarterback in this year’s draft. Most of the major sports outlets scored him somewhere between 90 out of a 100 in total ranking. When the 2013 NFL Draft rolled around Smith arrived in style. He was expected to be the first overall QB taken. Even more thought he’d be not only the first QB taken but the first player taken. He started dropping fast. Soon he was out of the top 10. Okay so he was falling a little low but he’d be picked up soon enough. 5 more teams chose their players and finally the first quarterback was taken. E.J. Manuel went umber 16 to the Buffalo Bills. Not another quarterback was picked in the first round. Smith was eventually picked by the Jets with the 7^th choice in the second round. While experts said he should’ve gone higher, I’m here to say he should’ve gone lower.        

To start we’ve got to go wayyyyy back to 2010. ’10 was Smith’s first full season as a starter. Smith showed promise. He passed for 2763 yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 65% completion percentage. Those were good numbers for sophomore. As a junior, Smith passed for 4,385 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 66 completion percentage. Smith’s final season was his best; 4,205 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 71% completion percentage. At home now you’re saying “okay E.J. we see the numbers, what’s this all mean?” Well thank you for asking strange guy with the same handwriting as me. The stats are cool and all but we need to consider the biggest factor to Smith’s success; schedule. Consider the demographics below.

300+ Passing Yard Games with Win:

1. Marshall 2 (OT)
2. Rutgers
3. Northfolk State
4. Connecticut
5. Cincinnati
6. Clemson (Orange Bowl)
7. James Madison
8. Maryland
9. Baylor
10. Kansas

The numbers can’t lie. All of Smith’s major games were against far lesser opponents. It took overtime to get 300 yards against Marshall in 2010. Against Connecticut and Cincinnati West Virginia won by a combined four points. He’s lost two bowls games which shows he struggles on a bigger stage. He’s struggled against teams packed with NFL talent including LSU and Oklahoma.

Why You Hatin? (What’s good about Geno Smith)

I might make it sound like Smith is horrible but he’s not a Ryan Leaf. But he surely isn’t a Tom Brady or even a Carson Palmer. But Smith has a good arm. He can make all the throws and is accurate. He takes good are of the ball and makes a lot of smart decisions. He is extremely athletic but has serious character issues. Reports came prior to the draft that he was texting during team interviews. Smith could develop into a good backup but lacks concentration and focus.

Okay Mr. Fantasy Writer Should I Draft Him or What?

Stay away from this kid. When he had to play teams with NFL level talent he didn’t do well. Unfortunately for him all the talent in the NFL is NFL level talent. Stupid but true. I doubt he’ll start at all until late in the season. So he won’t score any points for you. Rex Ryan is going to give Mark Sanchez every opportunity to play. He is after all, and I quote, Ryan’s “baby.” The Jets’ offense also has 0 weapons. They are by far going to be the worst offense this fall. At West Virginia he had Tavon Austin to throw too. Even if Smith gets the chance to start he’s going to struggle. He’s in the brightest lights of the NFL world and under enormous pressure. He’s not a bust yet. But it’s only a matter of time before he blows up.