These picks are primarily for large field GPPs as I’m looking for value in these tournament settings. So while I’ll mention some “Chalk Plays”, I’m mainly going to look at guys who are in good situations and they might be a bit under-owned.
-Bradford is definitely under-priced for this match-up. He leads one of the most high-powered offenses in the league in what looks to be a shoot-out style of game. Bradford’s health concern obviously led him to be undervalued, but he’s looked good running this offense in the preseason and he appears ready to go. While Bradford is a riskier QB for season long leagues, don’t let the injury concern keep you away from him in DFS, particularly at this price point.
-While Eli hasn’t looked great in the preseason, don’t let that cloud your opinion of the Giants signal caller for this game. The Cowboys defense lost their top corner and this game looks to be a shootout. Manning is entering the 2nd year in this offense and should have even more weapons even if Cruz can’t suit up for this game. More people will probably gravitate towards Romo in this match-up, meaning Eli might be slightly under-owned.
-While Lacy could be considered a “Chalk Play”, and he should see relatively high ownership, he’s worth writing up and having in your line-ups. He’s a dual threat RB as he figures to see work in the passing game (something that could improve with Nelson’s injury), and he is clearly the number one back in Green Bay. Not only is he the top back, but he figures to get the goal line work and the game flow suggests that he should see a lot of carries late in the game. While it’s not always the best to pay up for running backs in big GPP’s, Lacy is probably worth it this week.
-Hill is very similar to Lacy, though he doesn’t have the pass catching upside of Lacy. Hill though figures to see plenty of work and should be heavily featured near the goal-line. The Bengals figure to be up in this game which could lead to Hill getting 25 or more carries in this contest as he looks to close out the game. He’s going to need to get at least 1 TD to hit value, but this feels like a good spot for him.
-Ivory feels like a bit of an under the radar play as he has just about everything going for him. He no longer appears to be in a true committee approach, and the Jets figure to rely heavy on the running game this year. In this game vs the Browns, the Jets appear to be the favorite so if they are up late Ivory should get a ton of work. While he’s not been a big pass catcher, he could see some more work this year. Ivory also is definitively the goal line back so it’s quite possible he gets a TD here. Given his reduced price he makes a great RB play on either site.
-Could Calvin Johnson be overlooked? It might be that way week 1. With so many top tier receivers in juicy match-ups, Johnson might see his ownership percentage lower than you’d expect. Most people consider the Chargers having a strong secondary, and I think that is true, but both of their top corners are 5’9″ and not goo match-ups for Calvin Johnson. Johnson also benefits from an uncertain running game and a match-up that could be very pass heavy vs the Chargers. Don’t be surprised to see Johnson with 7+ catches, 125+ yards and a TD or two.
-Evans’ health is something to keep an eye on as he tweaked his hamstring in the preseason, but this looks to be a very favorable situation for Evans. Between the injury and the other receivers available near his price point, Evans figures to be relatively under-owned. While Evans wasn’t consistent last season, keep in mind that he was a rookie and he had maybe the worst QB play in the league. Jameis Winston should be a nice improvement at QB and he’s likely to rely heavily on Evans and Vincent Jackson this season. In addition Evans has a great match-up vs one of the worst defenses from last season who will be without their star corner. If Evans is healthy this has the potential to be a monster game for him, which will more than justify his price tag.
-Matthews had a nice rookie year and produced a number of good fantasy performances. He’s the natural stack with Sam Bradford, but is playable in his own right if you go with a different QB. Matthews should be featured heavily in an offense that makes receivers look quite good, and his QB play figures to improve with Bradford at the helm. Against the Falcons the Eagles are expected to pass quite a bit, which should lead to big game for Matthews. Given a reduced price from the top guys he’s a great option.
-Landry became a PPR machine down the stretch for the Dolphins last year (making his lower salary on DK a bit baffling), and figures to have an even bigger role this year in Miami’s improving offense. Landry is expected to be Ryan Tannehill‘s top target, especially early in the season while rookie DeVante Parker gets healthy/up to speed. The Redskins secondary made a number of fantasy stars last season and they figure to be weak again this year, making this a great match-up for a high-volume number 1 receiver like Landry. The one concern is this could quickly turn into a blowout limiting the passing in the 2nd half of the game, but at this price point that risk is worth it.
-Sanders is another guy who could be a bit under-owned given his price point and getting lost in the shuffle of the top receivers. This is a great match-up for the Broncos passing attack as the Ravens were horrible in the secondary last season and their run defense could force the Broncos to not be that balanced. Most people will look to grabbing DT, but Sanders is a viable option as well. He put up big numbers last year despite Peyton falling off at the end of the year last year. Also this season there is no Julius Thomas and the 3rd receiver spot is definitely up for grabs. If the Ravens try to focus too much on stopping DeMaryius Thomas, Sanders could have a big game.
-Witten is forgotten in fantasy it seems like, but this is a TE that had 75 catches, 800+ yards and 5 TD’s last year. The Cowboys are expected to rely on the passing game more this year and that should definitely be the case week 1 vs the Giants injury plagued secondary. If you want to save some money from a top TE, Witten is in a great spot. His ownership might be high since there is no Gronkowski in the Sunday-Monday slate, but he’s worth it.
-Cameron is expected to be the 2nd option in the Dolphins passing offense this year and is in a great spot week 1 vs a Redskins defense that is inept versus TE’s. With Tannehill at QB, that is a major boost to Cameron from his days in Cleveland and he should be far more consistent. Cameron’s health is a concern over the long haul, but this week he appears healthy, is under-priced and has a fantastic match-up, making him a pretty easy pick.
-The Jets defense already was one of the best at getting after the quarterback last season, and that was with arguably the worst secondary in the league. Now their secondary is re-stocked and they should present a major challenge for even the league’s top offenses. The Browns are definitely not among the league’s top offenses and this has the potential to be big game for the Jets defense. Not only are sacks and turnovers likely, but the Jets have a shot of shutting out the Browns offense that lacks any true playmakers.
-The Dolphins probably would have been the top play had Robert Griffin III remained at QB. He was a sack magnet and Miami might have easily put up 6-10 sacks. Now they figure to get to Kirk Cousins less and Cousins is probably more likely to move the ball and put up some points. Cousins though does have some serious turnover tendencies so the Dolphins might be in line for a good day.
-The 49ers had easily the worst offseason of any team and they face an up-and-coming defense in the Vikings. Minnesota was a little inconsistent last year, but they have a lot of talent on this side of the ball and they should quickly become one of the top units in the league. The 49ers figure to be down in this game which will lead to more sack opportunities vs a questionable offensive line and a QB who has a knack for taking sacks.
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