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Best Plays Draft Kings GPP

best-week-fantasy

 

Paeno’s Picks: DraftKings GPP:

QB-Aaron Rodgers $7,900 – Rodgers will be motivated to exploit the Jets weak secondary. Even though Lacy might play, the Jets have a stout Defensive Line, which should encourage the Packers to throw all the more.

QB-Nick Foles $8,100 Foles sputtered last week, but turned it around toward the end.  Foles has a great price this week, and this game is tied for the highest Vegas line, so expect a shootout.

QB- Carson Palmer $7,300- Last weeks box score doesn’t do Palmer justice.  Palmer looked rejuvenated and in much better shape.  Also, there is a lot of upside with Palmer, because Bruce Arians loves to chuck it deep and he has Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown (T.Y. Hilton  JR) to throw to.

VALUE PLAYS

QB- Jake Locker $7,100 Jake is seeing the field a little better and just so happens to be playing Dallas this week.  Locker has a very low floor (not nearly as low vs. Cowboys), but if he throws for a couple touchdowns and possibly adds some points on the ground, he has big upside.

CONTRARIAN QB PLAY

QB- Geno Smith $6,200 Recently, I have been a secret admirer of Geno Smith.. You know, the kind of admiration that I would only admit if he turns out to be a good quarterback.  At the end of last season,we started seeing improvement in footwork and reading defenses, he could surprise this week, let alone this year.  Note: He has publicly stated that the coaching staff wants him to run more, which helps his upside.

 

RB- Matt Forte $8,000  Forte is a DraftKings favorite of mine because he catches so many passes. Marc Trestman is incredible at putting his best players in the best possible situation.  Last week Forte had 169 total yards, including 8 catches.  Jeffrey and Marshall are banged up, so Forte could get even more work.

RB-Lesean McCoy $8,200 Don’t overreact based upon 1 week.  McCoy is the engine of this offense and Vegas predicts it to be tied for the highest scoring game of the week.

RB- Jamaal Charles $7,400 The Chiefs Offensive Line is my biggest concern, but hard to argue with taking JC as the #5 priced RB in PPR scoring format.

RB- Arian Foster $7,000 Foster’s talent has never been the question, it has been his injuries.  I would never take Foster in season long leagues, but on DraftKings I love him.  He is a true bellcow back, who does everything well.

RB-$6,800  Montee Ball– KC’s defense is falling apart and Montee Ball should take advantage of that.  I am not excited about Montee Ball as a player, but he does offer great value as the DEN RB.  If Knowshon can be a top 5 RB, then so can Montee Ball.  Well, until C.J. Anderson takes his job.  Wait, what!?…Did I just say that out loud?

RB-$6,300 Giovani Bernard Last week, Hue Jackson used Giovani all over the field and dominated the backfield touches.  He might even get a slight bump in passing targets with Eifert out.

VALUE PLAYS

RB-Terrance West $4,800- Ben Tate  went down and Terrance West stepped in and looked great.  He showed quick burst, agility, and a great fit for the zone scheme. Terrance West is a little faster and more agile than Alfred Morris, but with less power.  Hand picked by Browns Off Coordinator, Kyle Shannahan, knows a thing or two about Alfred Morris and the zone scheme.

RB: Darren McFadden $3,000 This is only an option if Maurice Jones Drew sits.  I would even consider pairing Run-DMC and Latavius Murray for a combined $6,000 and load up on WR’s.

Contrarian RB: Lorenzo Taliaferro $3,000 This could be several weeks early, but I expect the Ravens 4th Rd draft pick to eventually take over the lionshare of carries in Baltimore.  With Ray Rice cut, Pierce benched, and Forsett is better suited for a change of pace (COP) role… Why not now? This is strictly for a large entry field that you are ok with losing your entry fee.  

Bankroll Management ←Read this so, you don’t blow your bankroll on GPP’s

Contrarian RB: Jeremy Hill $3,000 Where did all of that pre-season hype go after last week? Hue Jackson didn’t forget and reportedly apologized to Hill and promised him more opportunities moving forward. Oh and by the way, the Saints ran all over the Falcons soft defense, including 3 TD’s.

 

WR Calvin Johnson $8,500- Matt Stafford and Megatron are out for blood.  If Detroit can keep Stafford upright, then Calvin should continue to offer fantasy winning upside like last week.

WR Demaryius Thomas $7,000  Manning looked for Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders a lot more last week.  Look for Manning to target

WR AJ Green $8,200  Green draws a nice matchup vs. the Falcons.  Also, Green should retain or improve his targets with Eifert out and only Sanu, Gresham, and Bernard as any real competition.

WR Jordy Nelson $6.600 – Last week, Nelson held his own in Seattle and he gets a much softer matchup facing the Jets secondary.  He led NFL in targets last week with 14, which should translate into more more production

WR Desean Jackson $5,300– I expect Griffin to look much better at home and give him some more time to hit D-Jax on screens and long bombs.

VALUE PLAYS

WR Emmanuel Sanders $6,000- Peyton Manning is at his best when he exploits a matchup that is to the Broncos advantage.  They will continue to move Sanders all over the field to open up their offense.  Don’t hesitate to use Sanders, as he is the cheapest cog in the Broncos elite offense.

WR Kelvin Benjamin $5,900 – Cam Newton is coming back and should look to get his #1 target plenty of opportunities.  He also is their best Red Zone option.

WR Michael Floyd $6,000- Michael Floyd and Palmer displayed great chemistry together on Monday NIght Football.  Palmer loves to chuck it deep in Bruce Arians Offense.

WR Brandon Cooks $5,300- Cooks can be played in cash games and Gpp’s, because he has a high usage rate and a very high ceiling.  Week 1 he showed that he was able to immediately contribute and be targeted frequently.

WR Torrey Smith– $5,000 Thursday Night Games are not always kind for fantasy purposes, but Torrey Smith at $5,900 is an absolute crime.  In a GPP, that is a screaming value.

WR TY Hilton-$5,000 Hilton is a game changer and I expect him to take one to the house in the highest projected scoring game this week.

 

TE Graham- $7,100- Graham was targeted 10 times in week 1.  Graham’s floor is extremely high, but so is his ceiling making for a great cash game or GPP play. Last week Julius Thomas had a monster week, but Jimmy’s day is coming soon.

TE Julius Thomas $7,000- “Orange Julius” had a monster week 1.  Peyton Manning is likely to spread the love and exploit his opponents deficiencies, so Julius has a lower floor than Graham.

VALUE PLAY

TE ERTZ $4,800 – I’m all aboard the Zach Ertz train, and if you are smart, you will get aboard NOW.  WAY below market value.

TE GRESHAM $3,000  Gresham is a great “punt” option at TE this week, with Tyler Eifert on IR.  He has a juicy matchup against the Falcons and although he has a capped ceiling, he has plenty of upside at his minimum price.  He is a good play in Cash Games or Tournaments

TE Kelce $3,000The Chiefs better get him the rock if they know what’s good for them.  They might not, so hence GPP only.

 

Defense

Broncos $3,100 vs. Chiefs If you are willing to pay up, Denver could have a big week against the Chiefs offense.  The Chiefs offensive line is in shambles, which makes life difficult for Charles, and they have yet to utilize their future stud Tight End, Travis Kelce.  I expect the Broncos to push the tempo and try to create an early 2 or 3 score lead.  If they can do that, then Denver will be able to unleash their pass rushing hounds (Ware and Von Miller) on the depleted Kansas City O-Line and force multiple sacks and turnovers.

Titans $2,900 vs. Cowboys – Ray Horton is a great defensive coordinator and in week 1 his Defense caused 4 sacks, 3 turnovers, and only allowed 10 points vs. the Chiefs.  Romo will be coming to town, coming off a terrible week 1.

Saints $3,000 vs. Browns- The New Orleans Defense flopped in week 1, but not for a lack of talent.  The Browns run game is very good, but Jordan Cameron is banged up and at this point, Josh Gordon has not returned.

Redskins $2,900 vs. Jaguars- Though not typically known for their defense as of late, Washington played very good defense against the Texans last week.  Losing nose tackle, Barry Cofield will hurt, but the Redskins should still be able to return value.  Best used for a GPP, but they could be in play for cash games if you are looking to pay up for other positions.

OPTIMAL GPP LINEUP

QB- A. Rodgers

RB- T. West

RB- Jamaal Charles/M.Ball

WR-J. Nelson

WR-D. Thomas

WR- T. Smith/Hilton

TE- J. Gresham

Flex-Ty Hilton/Michael Floyd/Kelvin Benjamin

Def- Broncos/Saints D

—OR—

CONTRARIAN GPP LINEUP

QB- G.Smith/Aaron Rodgers

RB- D.McFadden/Lorenzo Taliaferra* (extremely large fields)

RB- T. West/Lorenzo Taliaferra* (extremely large fields)

WR-J. Nelson

WR-C.Johnson

WR- D.Thomas

TE-Gronkowski

Flex-TY Hilton

D- Saints D